Blog
Saturday, August 27, 2022
Trump's Future Electoral Viability Depends on Senate Outcome
Trump is unique with regard to recent presidents in how involved he's been in subsequent elections, either endorsing or black-balling. The exact magnitude of his effect on primary candidates is still unclear, but what is clear is that there is at least some effect. For marginal candidates, like Dr. Oz, he pushed them over the threshold.
Recently, there's been a lot of discussion about Republicans picking bad candidates and throwing away their chance at taking over the Senate like they did back in 2010. The battle for the Senate in 2022 was always going to be an uphill climb. Even though the Senate is evenly split and it's a midterm election when the out-party has more luck, Republicans are on the defense in terms of the seats that are up for election, needing to defend 21 seats vs. Democrats 14.
| Candidate | State | Primary Result | Did Endorsement Matter? | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boozman | Arkansas | Won (+37.1) | No (large margin) | ||
| Britt | Alabama | Won (+29.7) | No (large margin, back-up endorsement) | ||
| Budd | North Carolina | Won (+34.0) | No (large margin) | ||
| Crapo | Idaho | Won (+56.6) | No (large margin, incumbent) | ||
| Grassley | Iowa | Won (+47.0) | No (large margin, incumbent) | ||
| Hoeven | North Dakota | Won (+57.7) | No (large margin, incumbent) | ||
| Johnson | Wisconsin | Won (+69.2) | No (large margin, incumbent) | ||
| Kennedy | Louisiana | TBD | No (incumbent) | ||
| Laxalt | Nevada | Won (+22.0) | |||
| Lee | Utah | No (incumbent) | |||
| Levy | Connecticut | Won (+10.4) | |||
| Masters | Arizona | Won (+10.2) | Yes | ||
| Moran | Kansas | Won (+60.6) | No (large margin, incumbent) | ||
| Oz | Pennsylvania | Won (0.1) | Yes | ||
| Paul | Kentucky | Won (+82.7) | No (large margin, incumbent) | ||
| Rubio | Florida | Won (by default) | No (incumbent) | ||
| Scott | South Carolina | Won (by default) | No (incumbent) | ||
| Tshibaka | Alaska | Won/Advanced | ? | ||
| Vance | Ohio | Won (+8.3) | Possibly | ||
| Walker | Georgia | Won (+54.2) | No, endorsed by McConnell |
source: Ballotpedia.org
Of these, Oz, Masters, Laxalt, Tshibaka, and Vance merit following in the general. At the moment, Oz and Masters are behind, Vance is ahead, Laxalt is very close. Assuming all the other races fall according to current polls, the Senate will be 49D to 47R. Alaska will probably go Republican no matter what, which brings it to 49D/48R.
That means Republicans would have to win all three remaining seats--Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona--to win control of the Senate. There's actually a very narrow situation for which Trump will garner the blame, Republicans have to end up with no more than 50 seats, their won seats must include Wisconsin and Georgia, and their lost seats must be Pennsylvania and Arizona, the two seats most closely tied to Trump's endorsements.
If all those things happen, then Republicans will view 2022 as a wasted opportunity, where the Senate could've been picked up if the right candidates had been chosen; and when the Republicans look around for someone to blame, they'll blame Trump. For politicians like Mitch McConnell, there's nothing as unforgivable as losing an election. We should then expect the forces behind the Republican party to quietly or even publicly start turning against Trump. So far, Republicans have been pretty mum because they're afraid of Trump's effect and what he might do, but if Trump shows that his judgment leads to loss of power, Republicans will no longer maintain their silence.